My Investment Research Data

Being as an active investor, I do my own research before I allocate my hard earn money into the stock market or equities. This research data is meant for me to carry out Asset Allocation according to the regions and it is not for me to time the market as I believe no one can time the market correct all the time.

Overall Market

Money is flowing into Environmental, Social & Corporate Governance (ESG). This is one of the portfolio should keep an eye on. There are improvement on how shareholders are value China on ESG.^{[ 7 ]}

Implementation of Vaccination. As at 24th April 2021 reported, nearly 900 million vaccine doses have been administered globally, but over 81% have gone to high or upper-middle-income countries. This is one of the key factors that we need to keep an eye on when we do Asset Allocation into the regions. The developed countries may have advantage of the vaccination and they may be the regions that will recover first in terms of the Covid cases and also follow by economy. Use the Google to check on the Statistics of the New Covid Cases on developed regions and see how effective the vaccine implementation is._{[ 4 ]}

Fed timeline on rate hike. If 2023 is the year to adjust the rate, market usually will react around 10 months ahead.^{[ 1 ]}

US Market

Covid-19 cases decline. Fiscal Stimulus of US$1.9 trillion. US$2 trillion spending on infrastructure ^{[ 3 ]}

Key areas to keep an eye on progress of vaccinations, corporate earnings, inflation and bond yield. ^{[ 3 ]}

Will not have rate hike in short term. Fed is committed to keeping the rate at low until 2023^{[ 3 ]}

As reported on 16th Jun, GDP Expected for 2021 is 7% and the unemployment expected to be 4.5%. ^{[ 1 ]}

Biden tax proposal not to raise taxes on Americans earning less than $400k. ^{[ 2 ]}

Proposal to raise income tax 37% to 39.6% for those earning $400k and above. ^{[ 2 ]}

Propose to raise corporate tax 21% to 28%. ^{[ 2 ]}

Propose to raise capital gain tax and dividend income @ 39.6% on income above $1 million. This will affect mostly fund houses which has high transaction volumes. Individual investors not so much impacted. This will also encourage investors to hold on the stocks instead of selling^{[ 2 ]}

Very unlikely we see tax changes in the year 2021 but expect to be in 2022. ^{[ 2 ]}

Consumer prices jump 5% in May 2021. ^{[ 9 ]}

The Fed certainly does not seems to be super concern on the inflation as the rate is push up by certain sector data like used car data. ^{[ 10 ]}

The 10 years Treasury yield did not act strongly according to the CPI news; says the former Fed Governor Sarah. ^{[ 10 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

Inflation eventually leads to interest rate raise. When interest rate goes up, the cost of running business will be higher. Short term will not be good for equity. Interest goes up also will cause Bond price comes down. All these points are to be cautions but it is not bearish. ^{[ 8 ]}

China Market

Sector to watch out: BioTech, 5G, Infrastructure, Local consumption, aerospace, eCommerce, Finance, ESG.

As Updated Oct 23, 2020 in Investopedia web site, China market only taken 5% into MSCI World index where as U.S. (58%) and Japan (7%).^{[ 27 ]}

Entire 2020 China GDP grow 2.3%.^{[ 11 ]}

Projected entire 2021 China GDP grow 6.0%.^{[ 3 ]}

China total foreign trade grew 26.6% year-on-year to 3.15 yuan (US$487.6 bil) in April ^{[ 5 ]}

During Jan ~ Apr; import jump 22.7% year-on-year to 5.3 trillion yuan while export soared 33.8% to 6.32 trillion yuan; sending it trade surplus of 1.02 trillion yuan^{[ 5 ]}

Retail sales grew by 1.75% in Mar from Feb; indicating consumption has continue to improve ^{[ 5 ]}

The PMI stayed 51.1 as at Apr; sign of robust expansionary momentum.^{[ 5 ]}

China keep opening up and improving its business environment like implementing new policies and new industry catalogue which released at the end of 2020. Under the new catalogue, foreign investors can enjoy tax rebates, tariff exemptions on equipment, and land supplies. During Q1 2021, its foreign investment stood 302.47 billion yuan (US$46.7bil), up 39.9% on a yearly basis.^{[ 6 ]}

As reported 28th Jun 2021, China’s debt has grown dramatically over the past decade and is one of the biggest economic challenges. Pandemic hit prompted authorities to make it easier for companies to get loans. ^{[ 26 ]}

Other major economies such as the U.S., Japan and those in Europe similarly saw an uptick in debt-to-GDP ratios as governments around the world increased spending to help businesses during Pandemic. The US and Japan government made up the largest share of total debt. The comparison of major economies Debts to GDP chart can be found HERE.^{[ 26 ]}

China debts to GDP reach an all-time high of nearly 290% in the third quarter 2020. The 160% of debt to GDP are coming from corporate sector.^{[ 26 ]}

As reported 12th July 2021, The People’s Bank of China said Friday it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points for all banks, effective from July 15. The move is expected to release around 1 trillion yuan (or $154 billion) in long-term liquidity into the economy. RRR cut could boost market sentiment in the short term and improve stock market liquidity. ^{[ 60 ]}

In the short term, the move could boost liquidity-sensitive sectors, such as aerospace and defence, electronics, IT and media, electric vehicles and batteries, and new energy sector according to UBS. ^{[ 60 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

Ongoing uncertainties in trade relations between U.S. and China.^{[ 3 ]}

Anti-Trust to regulate monopolise (policy tightening) will cause volatility. ^{[ 3 ]}

As reported 28th Jun 2021, China’s debt has grown dramatically over the past decade and is one of the biggest economic challenges. Pandemic hit prompted authorities to make it easier for companies to get loans. ^{[ 26 ]}

Other major economies such as the U.S., Japan and those in Europe similarly saw an uptick in debt-to-GDP ratios as governments around the world increased spending to help businesses during Pandemic. Government in US and Japan made up the largest share of total debt. The comparison of major economies Debts to GDP chart can be found HERE^{[ 26 ]}

China debts to GDP reach an all-time high of nearly 290% in the third quarter 2020. The 160% of debt to GDP are coming from corporate sector.^{[ 26 ]}

EURO Market

As reported on 1st of Jun 2021, IHS Markit’s final Manufacturing PMI rose to 63.1 in May from April’s 62.9, the highest reading since the survey began in June 1997.^{[ 56 ]}

As reported on 1st July 2021, Mutual fund flows into European stocks year-to-date have been at their strongest for six years, with U.S. and Asian investors reversing recent trends to become net buyers of European shares, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs. ^{[ 55 ]}

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is up more than 14% year-to date. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have also said ,Europe is well-placed to outperform all major regions this year for the first time in more than two decades.^{[ 55 ]}

Barclays attributed the uptick in inflows to Europe, particularly from U.S. investors, to the continent’s delayed reopening offering a relative growth benefit going into the second half of the year. ^{[ 55 ]}

Next three years are likely to see the biggest payoff in terms of real economic activity, support for company earnings, particularly in sectors that have benefited from the recovery fund. ^{[ 55 ]}

These will be the capital goods space, utility companies, the auto companies, and also the telecom providers. In these sectors, we would expect the most meaningful payoff. ^{[ 55 ]}

Europe broadly possesses a higher proportion of value and cyclical stocks than its global peers. The region has underperformed the U.S. consistently since around 2007.^{[ 55 ]}

The ability of European equity to attract capital will depend on a number of factors, most crucial of which will be the ability to grow earnings.^{[ 55 ]}

Singapore Market

Base on investment talk on 27th May 2021, Singapore Historical P/E Ratio is 13.9x and Forward P/E Ratio is 14.3x (+2.9%) and the Dividend Yield is at 3.9%.

Lower US interest rate will lift Singapore equity.^{[ 23 ]}

As on 18th Jun 2021 Singapore has fully vaccinated 35% and roughly 49% received 1st dose. The government started relaxing some measure. The number of cases in the community has somewhat stabilized. ^{[ 22 ]}

Singapore is a magnet for World Class Talent, ranked as one of the best places in the world to live and work by expats.^{[ 35 ]}

Singapore continues to be ranked Number One in human capital development. The Human Capital Index 2020 Update.^{[ 35 ]}

Singapore has built a reputation for strong governance and a conducive business environment for multinational companies. Singapore is the top-ranking Asian country in the 2019 Rule of Law Index.^{[ 35 ]}

Singapore economy forecast to expand 5.4% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022. In Jun 26th there are Private-sector analysts have raised their forecast for Singapore’s GDP to be 4% to 6% for 2021 and 4% for 2022. ^{[ 35 ] [ 40 ]}

Singapore PMI reported 50.7 for the month of May 2021. Since Jul 2020, Singapore PMI exceeded 50. As PMI above 50 is signalling expansion.^{[ 34 ]}

As of 21 Jun 2021, they are 36% fully vaccinated and they target to fully vaccinated 2/3 or 67% of their population by their national day on 9th Aug 2021.^{[ 38 ]}

Singapore manufacturing output jumps 30% in May, in seventh straight month of growth ^{[ 39 ]}

Manufacturing contributes to over one-fifth of Singapore’s GDP.^{[ 39 ]}

In 15th Jun, survey predicts a lower unemployment rate of 2.7% at year-end, down from the 2.9 per cent forecast in March.^{[ 40 ]}

As 22nd Jun 2021, GlobalFoundries announced Tuesday that it will build a new fabrication plant in Singapore to meet the unprecedented global demand for chips. The semiconductor industry is a key pillar of Singapore’s manufacturing sector ^{[ 42 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

10th May 2021 reported Asia best performing stock market is stalling amid rising viruses cases. Any setback in global economic rebound will have impact on Singapore as they dependence on global trade.^{[ 24 ]}

May 20th 2021, reported Singapore is taking defensive approch to recent rise in Covid cases; tightening it border will cause the shortage of foreign labour.^{[ 25 ]}

World Bank data showed Singapore has a “pretty small” domestic market, exports-to-GDP ratio of over 170% is one of the highest globally.^{[ 36 ]}

The trade-dependent economy had to contend with the U.S.-China trade war and a slump in global demand for semiconductors — one of its main exports. There is chart in this report showing Singapore economic growth slow for the past 10 years since 2010. Check the check from the link.^{[ 37 ]}

The main downside risk is if the borders don’t reopen, then manpower costs will continue to be the extra whammy for the construction and other labour-intensive sectors.^{[ 40 ]}

Malaysia Market

Base on investment talk on 27th May 2021, Malaysia Historical P/E Ratio is 16.3x and Forward P/E Ratio is 13.4x (-17.8%) and the Dividend Yield is at 4.5%.

Malaysia is losing out on labour intensive market & high end which is IT intensive. Malaysia is neither here nor there. Malaysia land & utility costs still competitive than Singapore.^{[ 31 ]}

Since 2017, net FDI was on the down trend beside 2019 which has 3.1% slight improvement.^{[ 28 ] [ 29 ] [ 30 ]}

As reported on 6th May 2021, the slow rollout of vaccination in Malaysia now have the heavy cost to pay. The first deal with Pfizer for 12.8 million doses was only inked on Nov 27 2020. ^{[ 50 ]}

We are still far from achieving the level required for herd immunity. Pfizer, BoiNTech, and Moderna are all saying that a third dose will probably be needed within 12 months of completing the first 2 doses. If the 3rd dose is confirmed, the world will be another round of competition on mass order of the vaccine. This will further delay Malaysia progress on vaccination. More information of the article can be found HERE ^{[ 50 ]}

As reported on 23 June 2021, the World Bank has slashed its GDP growth projection for Malaysia for the second time to 4.5% in 2021 — from 6% estimated in March and 6.7% in December 2020 — after taking into account a flare-up in Covid-19 infections and slower-than-expected vaccine rollout.^{[ 51 ]}

As reported on 26 June 2021, S&P Global downgrades Malaysia outlook to negative on additional fiscal downside risk. ^{[ 57 ]}

The ratings agency also points out that the government’s fiscal position also carries contingent risks from its public enterprises and financial sector such as guarantees on debts and letter of support, including the US$3 billion letter of support for 1MDB. ^{[ 57 ]}

Downward ratings pressure could also build if political stability deteriorates such that policymaking becomes materially less predictable. ^{[ 57 ]}

BNM maintains OPR at 1.75%. Low interest rate means good for equity as the cost of running business is low and it will be good for bond fund also. ^{[ 58 ]}

Malaysia now has more Covid cases per million people than India.^{[ 59 ]}

As reported 29th July 2020, SMEs' contribution to GDP rose to 38.9%. This is an area to watch out as Covid-19 impacted SME most and eventually it will affect the economy of Malaysia. ^{[ 61 ]}

As reported 13th July 2021, Malaysia to cut 2021 GDP growth outlook to around 4%.^{[ 62 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

Reported on 21st Dec 2020, FITCH downgrade of Malaysia on concerning the massive debts. It is concerning on the debt to GDP ratio is at higher level. Political uncertainty is another reason FITCH downgrade of Malaysia.^{[ 32 ]}

Keep close monitor the progress of vaccinations, new Covid-19 cases, pace of economic and corporate earnings. ^{[ 3 ] pp1}

Taiwan Market

Sector to keep an eye on Semi-Conductor and Technology.

Base on investment talk on 27th May 2021, Taiwan Historical P/E Ratio is 14.9x and Forward P/E Ratio is 14.7x (-1.3%) and the Dividend Yield is at 3.6%.

Taiwan economy outgrows China in 2020; 1st time for the past 30 years. Taiwan grow 2.98% and China 2.3%.^{[ 11 ]}

Due to chip shortage, there is high potential chip makers will still be on rally mode for entire 2021. For 2020 world semiconductor trade statistics (WSTS) grow 6.5% (US$439bil) and forecast grow 6.9% (US$469bil) for 2021.^{[ 13 ]}

Demand for semiconductors for tech firms and auto-maker will continue to boost Semiconductor Manufacturing. The supply shortage may only be ease by end of 2021 or early 2022. Asia account 75% of semiconductor suppliers.^{[ 14 ]}

As reported on 15th April 2021, TSMC report 19.4% rise in first-quarter profit that beat market expectations on strong global chip demand for the world’s top contract chipmaker. Revenue rose 25.4% to a record $12.92 billion. ^{[ 41 ]}

TSMC clients include Apple and Qualcomm and it further boosted by a global shortage of semiconductor chips that initially forced automakers to cut production.^{[ 41 ]}

As reported 22 Jun 2021, TSMC has about 56% world market share, followed by Samsung (18%), UMC (7%) and GlobalFoundries (7%). At this moment, only TSMC and Samsung have the ability to manufacture the most advanced chips.^{[ 42 ]}

How the global chip shortage happen and what will this change the future of semiconductor. This article and the videos gives you some idea of how important the semiconductors sector is and how would that affect the future of supply chain for US, China, Korea and Taiwan. Check out this article and video HERE ^{[ 43 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

China starts to achieve self-reliance in advance technology and semiconductors, not only will it not buy as much from Taiwan as before, it will also become Taiwan’s main competitor in the global market.^{[ 11 ]}

South Korea Market

Reported on May 2021, South Korea exports logged their sharpest expansion in 32 years, marking another robust month of shipments by stronger consumer demand globally as many economies start to reopen.^{[ 44 ]}

Surging chip and car shipments helped power a 45.6% surge in South Korea’s exports from a year earlier, government data showed on Tuesday, posting the fastest growth since August 1988 and extending their expansion to a seventh month in a row.^{[ 44 ]}

The Asia’s fourth-largest economy, robust U.S. consumer spending means demand for Korean products will remain strong. ^{[ 44 ]}

Recovery momentum should gather pace from the second quarter onwards, led by strong export prospects as global growth and 5G deployment pick up speed.^{[ 45 ]}

South Korea export is still very strong. It's June First 20 days export rise 29.5% Y/Y ^{[ 46 ]}

As reported 1st Jun 2021, the IHS Markit PMI for May stood at 53.7, compared with 54.6 in April.^{[ 47 ]}

As of Jun 25, South Korea has already vaccinated 25% of its population with at least one dose. They are ahead of the schedule and putting the country on track to meet a target of 70% by September.^{[ 48 ]}

As reported 28th Jun, As of last week, 30% of South Korea’s population had received their vaccinations and Hong says the country will be able to reach 70% by September. South Korea aim for herd immunity by November (fully vaccinated or virus can no longer spread rapidly) ^{[ 52 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

As reported 1st of Jun 2021, South Korea's consumer inflation accelerated to a more than nine-year high in May. Consumer prices rose 2.6% in May from a year earlier. The BOK currently sees inflation standing at 1.8% for the whole of 2021 and 1.4% for 2022.^{[ 49 ]}

Vietnam Market

Vietnam strong on electronic sector, foot ware, and clothing.

Base on investment talk on 27th May 2021, Malaysia Historical P/E Ratio is 12.9x and Forward P/E Ratio is 14.5x (+12.4%) and the Dividend Yield is at 1.1%.

Vietnam economy grew 2.9% in 2020 better than China 2.3%. ^{[ 15 ]}

Target to shift to Hi-Tech industry & target to grow 6.5% ~ 7% for 2021 ~ 2025. Taiwan FOXCONN invest US$270 Mil into Vietnam in Jan 2021 on iPad & MacBook product. Intel raised it investment into Vietnam by US$475 Mil to US$1.5bil ^{[ 16 ]}

With the low interest rate, Vietnamese open nearly 400,000 new trading account in 2020, a record high. The first 3 months of 2021, almost 258,000 new trading accounts was opened. This is a healthy sign of local retailer on the Vietnam stock market^{[ 17 ]}

In the first quarter, services lagged at 3.34 per cent growth, weighed down by movement restrictions amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Fiscal Stimulus of US$1.9 trillion.^{[ 18 ]}

As reported on 30 March 2021, Vietnam's official growth target is 6%. Most of the analysis trim their forecast lower due to Q1 growth disappointed..^{[ 18 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

Liquidity remains a challenge. ^{[ 19 ]}

Vietnam use currency controls as a monetary policy choice. In 2020, US country labelled Vietnam as currency manipulator. ^{[ 19 ]}

As reported on 30 March 2021, Vietnam still slow roll-out of vaccines as a key risk, estimate 0.05% population having received at least one dose. ^{[ 18 ]}

India Market

Focus on Digitisation, Pharmaceutical, IT and local consumption.

As reported on 31st March 2021, despite the virus cases increasing, the business activities looked steady.^{[ 33 ]}

India PMI recorded 55.3 on Feb and 52.8 Jan 2021. As PMI above 50 is signalling expansion.^{[ 33 ]}

Export was up 0.7% on month of Feb 2021 and import rose 7% on Feb 2021. [ 33 ]^{[ 33 ]}

Passenger vehicle sales, a key indicator of demand, rose nearly 18% in Feb 2021 from a year ago.^{[ 33 ]}

As reported at 29 Jun, HSBC research expects (FDI) to pick up pace going ahead as the economic recovery gathers steam. Any pullback in FDI, I think, will only be temporary. ^{[ 53 ]}

Foreign holding in the Indian equity market has shot up to 27.6%, much above the long-term average of 19.6%, a recent Nomura report said. ^{[ 53 ]}

HSBC research mentioned this Indian markets are seen as an alternative to China. Flows to China are usually fed out of India and vice versa. ^{[ 53 ]}

HSBC has pegged India's FY22 GDP growth at 8% in fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) with the first half likely to be weak, led by both the direct and indirect cost of the second wave.^{[ 53 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

As reported at 29 Jun, given the pace of vaccination (6.5 million jabs a day), India should get to herd immunity in the first half of 2022. About 55% of the overall population is likely to be vaccinated by end-2021.^{[ 53 ]}

Covid third wave still remains a risk for the country. ^{[ 53 ]}

Indonesia Market

Such investment will initially raise demand for the country’s currency & improve the current account.^{[ 21 ]}

Indonesia has been receiving attention from carmaker over the year. In 2019; Toyota said that it would invest US$2bil btw 2019 ~ 2023 especially in the production of EV. ^{[ 20 ]}

In 2019 Indonesia produced 1.29 million units of car where Malaysia produced 571,632. With Toyota and Hyundai investing in big way in Indonesia, car production numbers are expected to continue to rise. ^{[ 20 ]}

With Indonesia Government encouragement & their low cost of labour, (2nd cheapest labour market in Asia after India). Another one of the major factors that attract automotive industry is the natural resources i.e. nickel for EV battery^{[ 20 ]}

Bond Market

As reported on 14th Jun 2021, Malaysia bond market registered the 13th straight month of positive net foreign inflows in May, will likely see slowing down on foreign inflows in the coming months as inflationary pressure in the US build up and Malaysia politic unstable.^{[ 54 ]}

We do not expect the local bond market to record a net foreign outflow for 2021 despite expectations for slower than expected economic growth for 2021. ^{[ 54 ]}

FTSE Russell's decision to retain Malaysia in the World Government Bond Index (WGBI) is a positive sign for attracting foreign interest in local bonds. ^{[ 54 ]}

Net foreign inflow in May was lower at RM1.9bil compared with RM6.4bil in April. Foreign holdings of MGS rose to RM191.7bil compared with RM189.3bil in April. ^{[ 54 ]}

S&P rating agency remains an ongoing concern given its negative outlook on Malaysia.^{[ 54 ]}

MARC forecast for gross issuance for MGS/GII for this year is estimated to be between RM160bil and RM170bil. Foresees the gross issuance of corporate bonds to rebound to between RM100bil and RM110bil in 2021. ^{[ 54 ]}

BNM maintains OPR at 1.75%. Low interest rate means good for equity as the cost of running business is low and it will be good for bond fund also. ^{[ 58 ]}

(Key Area To Watch)

How well the Covid-19 pandemic is managed in Malaysia will also be a consideration point for foreign investors on Malaysia Bond market. ^{[ 54 ]}

The treat of uncontrolled inflation due to rising commodity prices would keep local bond investors on the edge. ^{[ 54 ]}

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